How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made BFC Daugavpils (Draw No Bet) 66%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even, but the numbers show BFC Daugavpils a little stronger. We expect about 1.0 goal for Grobiņa and 1.4 for Daugavpils, so the match should have a little more than two goals in total. It does not look like a defensive slog, but it is not a free-flowing shoot-out either. Both sides will have chances, but Daugavpils have the edge.
Recent meetings and the latest results point to Daugavpils having the upper hand. The pattern from the last few games suggests they are more likely to score and keep a clean sheet than Grobiņa. When the two have met before, the stronger side has usually come out on top, and the recent form backs that view.
Our pick is BFC Daugavpils on a draw-no-bet. The price of 1.61 looks good compared with what we see on the pitch. The draw-no-bet option removes the risk of a level result, so only a loss for Daugavpils would hurt us. With a 71 % chance of success, we feel comfortable backing them.
For the pick to go wrong, Grobiņa would need to hold Daugavpils to a draw or win outright. That would require a defensive masterclass from Grobiņa and a missed chance from Daugavpils. Our view is fairly strong, but we know football can be unpredictable, so we keep the stake modest.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
