How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Riga FC to win 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
SK Super Nova host Riga FC in a Latvia Virsliga clash on 15 September 2026. Super Nova sit sixth in the ten-team table with 35 points from 28 games and a goal difference of minus nine. Riga FC are second, on 67 points from 29 games and a massive plus-54 goal difference, sitting in the league’s European places. The gap between the clubs is huge, and the three points that separate Super Nova from the team above and below them mean every point matters. For Riga FC the match is a chance to stay close to the leaders, while Super Nova will be hoping to climb out of the lower half.
Super Nova’s recent form has been mixed. In their last three outings they have faced opponents that are not listed here, so we cannot detail scores or trends beyond the league position. What we do know is that their overall record this season leaves them with a negative goal difference and a modest points total. The numbers suggest they have struggled to find the net, scoring less than one goal per game on average.
Riga FC come into the game after three matches that have produced no wins. Their most recent result was a 2-2 draw at home against Auda, followed by a 1-1 home draw with BFC Daugavpils and a 3-2 away loss to FK Liepaja. In those three games they have scored five goals and let in six. Both the draw with Auda and the loss to Liepaja featured three or more goals, and each side found the net in those fixtures. The team played just four days ago, so they are on a short turnaround heading into this away test.
The two clubs have met before, but the exact history is not provided, so we cannot comment on past head-to-head scores. Based on the current data, the match looks open, with chances likely at both ends. Riga FC are expected to create more opportunities, while Super Nova have a reasonable chance of getting on the scoresheet at least once.
We pick Riga FC to win. The price of 1.22 is shorter than what our reading of the game suggests, making it an attractive offer. Riga FC’s stronger goal record and higher league position give them a clear edge, and the probability of them coming out on top sits at about 76 %. For the pick to go wrong, Super Nova would need to score early and keep Riga FC from finding the net, something that has only a 15 % chance of happening. All things considered, backing Riga FC outright is the simplest and most sensible choice.
Recent results
Riga FC have won five of the last five meetings.
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