How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Auda to win 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Auda host Ogre United at their home ground in the Latvia Virsliga on 16 September 2026. Auda sit third out of ten with 57 points after 29 games and a +18 goal difference, comfortably inside the European places. Ogre United are bottom of the table, tenth with just 15 points and a –46 goal difference, already in the relegation zone. Riga FC sit one spot above Auda with a 13-point cushion, while FK Liepāja are one place below Auda, 15 points back. The two clubs are on opposite ends of the table, so the match is a chance for Auda to extend their push for a European spot and for Ogre United to try to climb out of the drop zone.
Auda have been in fine form over their last eight matches, six wins, one draw and one loss. Their most recent result was a 2-2 draw away at Riga FC. Before that they beat Grobiņa 1-0 at home, then Drita 1-0 at home, followed by a 2-0 home win over Cliftonville FC. They also won 2-1 away at Cliftonville FC and 1-0 away at B36 Torshavn. In those eight games Auda have scored 12 goals and let in only seven, keeping five clean sheets. Their last four home games have all been victories, showing they are strong when they play in front of their own fans.
Ogre United have struggled all season and sit at the foot of the table. Their recent run includes a 3-0 loss to Celtic and a 4-1 defeat by Kilmarnock, leaving them with a very poor goal record. Their most recent match was a 4-1 loss to Kilmarnock, a game in which they could only manage one goal while conceding four. This result underlines the difficulties they face both in scoring and in defending.
When the two sides meet, the numbers suggest an open game with chances at both ends, but Auda are clearly the stronger side. Auda are expected to score about 2.6 goals while Ogre United are expected to score only 0.7. The chance of Auda scoring at all is 92 %, and the chance they score twice or more is 71 %. Ogre United have a 50 % chance to find the net and only a 16 % chance to score twice. The recent form of both teams points to Auda dominating possession and creating more opportunities, while Ogre United will likely be on the back foot.
Our pick is Auda to win. The price of 1.30 matches our reading of the game and looks good. We think Auda have about a 79 % chance of coming out on top, based on their strong recent run, home record and the big gap in quality shown by the goal expectations. For the pick to go wrong, Ogre United would need to find a way to score early and hold Auda at bay, or Auda would have to drop points after a rare lapse in concentration. Those scenarios look unlikely, so we feel confident backing Auda.
Recent results
Auda have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
