FK Liepāja v BFC Daugavpils: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 0. We made FK Liepāja to win 47%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

FK Liepāja host BFC Daugavpils at home in the Virsliga on 19 September. Liepāja sit fourth in the ten-team table with 42 points from 30 games, while Daugavpils are fifth with 38 points. The gap between them is only four points, but Auda sit just above Liepāja with an 18-point cushion, so the top of the table is already out of reach for both clubs. A win for Liepāja would widen the gap to Daugavpils and give them a small breathing space, while a loss would see them slip into the same spot as their rivals. The two teams are close in the standings, but the numbers suggest Liepāja are the stronger side.

Liepāja’s recent form has been mixed. They beat Spartaks 2-1, then drew 0-0 with Riga FC, and most recently suffered a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Celtic. That run gives them one win, one draw and one loss in their last three matches, with three goals scored and four conceded. The three-goal loss has left their goal difference at –2, showing that while they can find the net, they have also been vulnerable at the back.

Daugavpils have also been inconsistent. Their last three outings saw a 1-1 draw with Valmiera, a 4-1 loss to Kilmarnock and a 2-2 stalemate against Jelgava. The most recent 2-2 draw was a lively game where both sides created chances and shared the spoils. Over those three games Daugavpils have scored seven goals and let in six, leaving their goal difference at zero. The draw keeps them within four points of Liepāja and three points above SK Super Nova.

When these two clubs have met before, the matches have tended to be close affairs with both sides getting on the scoresheet. Given the recent goal tallies – Liepāja averaging 1.6 goals per game and Daugavpils 1.1 – we expect another moderate-scoring encounter, probably around two to three goals in total. The chances of Liepāja scoring at least once sit at 79 %, while Daugavpils have a 66 % chance to find the net. Both teams are capable of scoring twice, but Liepāja’s probability of a double is higher (46 % versus 30 %). This suggests a game that could see both sides hit the target, but with Liepāja slightly more likely to edge ahead.

Our pick is FK Liepāja to win. The price of 2.05 matches our own view of the game and looks reasonable. We see Liepāja as the stronger side on the numbers, with a roughly 48 % chance of taking all three points. The price offers a fair return for that likelihood. The pick would go wrong if Daugavpils manage to keep a clean sheet and score twice, or if Liepāja’s defence concedes early and they cannot recover. In those cases the match could finish level or swing in Daugavpils’ favour, but the balance of evidence still points to a home win for Liepāja.