Bray v Kerry FC prediction

What to expect

Bray host Kerry FC at their ground on 27 October in a League of Ireland clash that could shift the table a little. Bray sit lower in the standings after a string of defeats, while Kerry FC are a few places above them but have also slipped recently. Both teams are looking for points to move away from the bottom half. The match offers a chance for Bray to climb and for Kerry to keep their modest push forward.

Bray’s last eight games have been a mixed bag of disappointment. They lost 3-1 to Drogheda at home, then fell 2-0 to UC Dublin on their own turf. The only win in that spell came when they travelled to Galway and edged them 1-0. Before that they drew 0-0 with Galway at home, lost 1-0 to the same side at home, and were thrashed 5-1 by Cork City away. In total they have scored five goals and let in 17. They have kept two clean sheets but have failed to find the net in four matches. Four of those games saw three or more goals, and in three of them both sides scored.

Kerry FC’s recent form shows a bit more balance. Their last seven outings include a 2-1 loss to Bray Wanderers at home, a 1-1 draw with Cork City, and three straight wins: 2-0 at Cobh Ramblers, 2-1 away at Finn Harps and a 1-0 home victory over Wexford FC. The only other result was a 3-0 defeat away at Athlone Town. Across those seven games they have scored seven and conceded eight. They have kept two clean sheets and have been shut out twice. Three of the matches featured three or more goals, and in three both teams hit the net. Kerry played just three days ago, so they are coming in on a short turnaround.

The two sides have met before, and those meetings have often produced a fair amount of scoring. In three of the seven games in the recent runs for each club, both teams have found the net, and three games in each run have seen three or more goals. That pattern suggests we can expect an open contest with chances for both sides. Bray’s low scoring record this season contrasts with Kerry’s slightly better output, but both have shown they can score and also concede.

Our pick is Bray or a draw. The price of 1.28 is shorter than what we think the game is worth, so it gives us a little extra safety. We believe Bray have the edge at home, but they have struggled to score, so a draw is a realistic fallback. The price looks good for this approach. It would go wrong if Kerry manage to score early and hold on, or if Bray fail to find a goal again. In those cases the draw would be the only saving grace for our bet.