How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Shelbourne or Draw 76%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Shelbourne and 1.2 from Waterford, so Shelbourne come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Shelbourne come into this on three straight wins. Waterford come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Shelbourne or Draw. This covers Shelbourne or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Shelbourne have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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