How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Shamrock Rovers or Draw 79%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Dundalk and 1.7 from Shamrock Rovers, so Shamrock Rovers come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Shamrock Rovers or Draw. This covers Shamrock Rovers or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Shamrock Rovers have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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