How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 0. We made AFC Wimbledon to score 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
AFC Wimbledon host Milton Keynes Dons at home in an EFL League One clash on 17 September 2026. Wimbledon sit seventh in the 24-team table, ten points from six games with a –2 goal difference. They are just one point behind Plymouth Argyle and one point ahead of Stockport County. Dons are down at 20th, also on a –2 goal difference, five points from six games, a point above Peterborough United and a point behind Wycombe Wanderers. Both clubs are fighting for better positions, but Wimbledon have more to gain as they try to climb into the playoff places while Dons aim to pull clear of the relegation zone.
Wimbledon have come into this fixture on the back of two straight wins. Their last eight matches, mixing home and away, have produced four wins, one draw and three defeats. The most recent results are a 1-0 win over Doncaster at home, a 2-0 away win at Bromley, a 4-1 loss away to Burton, a 1-0 home win over Wigan, a 0-0 home draw with Reading and a 3-0 away loss to Huddersfield. In those eight games they have scored six goals and let in eleven. They kept five clean sheets but also failed to find the net in three matches. At home in their last four outings they have won two, drawn one and lost one.
Milton Keynes Dons arrive after three consecutive draws. Their last eight fixtures contain no wins, seven draws and a single loss. The most recent results are a 1-1 home draw with Peterborough United, another 1-1 home draw with the same side, a 3-3 away draw with Wycombe, a 3-1 away loss to Wigan, a 0-0 home draw with Leicester and a 1-1 home draw with Huddersfield. Over those eight games they have scored ten and conceded twelve. They have kept only one clean sheet and have been shut out once. On the road in their last four matches they have not won, drawing three and losing one.
In the five meetings that have taken place between the two clubs, Wimbledon have won twice, Dons once and two games have ended in draws. Those encounters have produced an average of two goals per game. The most recent meeting was a goalless draw at Milton Keynes on 25 January 2025. Given the low scoring history and the fact that both sides have struggled to find the net regularly, we expect another tight affair with few chances.
Our pick is AFC Wimbledon to score. We expect Wimbledon to average about 1.2 goals and Dons about 1.3, giving a total of roughly 2.6 goals. The chance Wimbledon will find the net is 71 out of 100, which matches our own view. The price of 1.32 is shorter than we think the game is worth, so it looks attractive. For the bet to fail, Wimbledon would have to be shut out, which would require a very defensive game or a poor finishing display. All signs point to at least one goal from the home side, making this a sensible choice.
Recent results
AFC Wimbledon have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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