How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Under 2.5 goals 60%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks very even. Both sides are expected to score about 1.1 goals each, so there is almost nothing separating them on paper. That points to a tight match where chances will be few and the scoreline will stay low.
Recent numbers tell the same story. The expected total of 2.2 goals shows that neither team is likely to open the scoring early or dominate the other. When teams are this evenly matched, games usually stay close and rarely produce many goals.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals. The price of 1.74 is longer than what we see in the match, which is why we like it. With a 62 % chance of the total staying below the threshold, the price looks good for a game that should be cagey and low-scoring.
It would have to take a sudden burst of goals for our view to be wrong – for example, both sides scoring twice or more. That would be a big shift from the expected 1.1-1.1 balance. We are fairly confident in our pick, but if the game opens up early the outcome could change.
Recent meetings
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