How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Notts County and 1.1 from Burton, so Notts County come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Notts County come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.3 goals in total (xG 1.3-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 80%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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