How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Both teams to score 54%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Oxford and 1.3 from Burton, so Oxford come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.7-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 54%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.75, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Oxford have won four of the last five meetings.
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