What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Oxford and 1.3 from Burton, so Oxford come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.7-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 54%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.76, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Oxford have won two of their last five.
✓Burton have won three of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
6 Apr 2024Burton 0 - 4 Oxford
16 Dec 2023Oxford 3 - 0 Burton
28 Jan 2023Burton 2 - 0 Oxford
3 Sept 2022Oxford 2 - 1 Burton
5 Mar 2022Oxford 4 - 1 Burton
