How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Over 2.5 goals 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Plymouth and 1.2 from Barnsley, so Plymouth come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.2 goals between the two (xG 2.0-1.2), landing about 60% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.53, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last four meetings are split 2-2, with no drawn.
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