How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 50%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Wycombe and 1.0 from Milton Keynes Dons, so Wycombe come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Wycombe come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.8 goals between the two (xG 1.7-1.0), landing about 53% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.76, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Milton Keynes Dons have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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