How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Cheltenham to score 75%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Accrington host Cheltenham at home in an EFL League Two clash on 3 October 2026. Accrington sit 19th out of 24 with seven points from eight games and a goal difference of minus three. They are just one point above Oldham Athletic and one point behind Shrewsbury Town, so every point matters in the fight to stay clear of the drop zone. Cheltenham sit second with fifteen points from the same number of matches and a plus four goal difference, level on points with both Barnet above them and Bristol Rovers below. Both teams are on the same day of the week, having played seven days ago, and the league table shows a clear gap in form and ambition between the two sides.
Accrington’s recent form has been a mix of draws and narrow defeats. In their last eight games they have managed one win, four draws and three losses. The most recent results were a 1-1 draw away at Swindon, a 0-0 stalemate at home to Newport County, a 2-1 loss away to Barnet, a 3-2 home win over Crawley Town, a 2-2 draw at home against Grimsby and a 3-2 defeat away at Walsall. They have not lost at home in those four matches, recording one win and three draws, but they have only kept one clean sheet and have failed to score in two games. Across the eight fixtures they have scored eleven goals while conceding fourteen, with five games seeing three or more goals and both sides finding the net in six of them.
Cheltenham arrive on the back of a strong unbeaten run. In their last eight outings they have recorded four wins, three draws and just one loss. The latest results include a 2-1 home victory over Chesterfield, a 1-1 draw away at Colchester, a 3-1 away win at Crawley Town, a 2-2 home draw with Grimsby, a 3-2 home win over York and a 2-2 draw away at Barnet. Their four most recent road games have produced one win, two draws and one defeat. Over the same eight-match span they have scored sixteen goals and let in twelve, with seven games featuring three or more goals and both teams scoring in every match. Like Accrington, they also played their previous game seven days ago.
When the two clubs have met in recent years the games have been tight. In the last five meetings Accrington have won once, Cheltenham twice and two matches have ended level. The average scoreline has been just 1.6 goals per game. The most recent encounter was a 3-1 win for Accrington on 31 January 2026. Given the low scoring history, this fixture is likely to stay open, with both sides capable of finding the net but not expected to produce a flood of goals.
We back Cheltenham to score. The chance of them putting a goal past Accrington sits at 78 % and our own feeling about the bet is 75 % in favour. The price of 1.30 matches our view of the game, offering a modest return for a fairly safe outcome. For the pick to fail, Cheltenham would need to be shut out, which would require a very tight defensive display from Accrington – something they have only managed once in their recent eight games. If the match follows the typical pattern of both sides scoring, the bet should pay off.
Recent results
Cheltenham have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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