What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Colchester and 0.8 from Port Vale, so Colchester come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.1 goals in total (xG 1.3-0.8), keeping it under more often than not (about 74%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Colchester have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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