How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Accrington to score 1 or fewer 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Barnet host Accrington in a League Two clash on 12 September 2026. Barnet sit top of the 24-team table with 12 points from six games and a +5 goal difference. Accrington are down at 21st, also on six games but with five points and a –3 goal difference. The leaders are just one point ahead of Bristol Rovers, while Accrington sit level with Exeter City above them and Port Vale below. Both teams have a lot to play for – Barnet want to keep the gap at the top and Accrington need points to move away from the relegation zone. The numbers we have suggest Barnet are the stronger side, but both sides have shown they can create chances.
Barnet have not lost in their last eight matches, recording five wins and three draws. Their most recent results are a 3-3 draw with Chesterfield away, a 1-1 draw with Exeter away and a 2-2 home draw with Cheltenham. Before that they beat Shrewsbury 3-1 away, Salford 3-1 at home and Harrogate 2-1 away. The three-game run of draws means they have not won recently, but they have still collected points. At home they have won two and drawn one in their last three fixtures. In those eight games they have scored 22 goals and let in 12, with seven matches seeing three or more goals and both sides finding the net in every game.
Accrington’s form over their last eight outings is less steady. They have one win, four draws and three defeats. Their latest results are a 3-2 home win over Crawley Town, a 2-2 home draw with Grimsby, a 3-2 away loss to Walsall, a 2-0 defeat at Exeter, a 2-2 home draw with Colchester and a 3-0 loss to Oldham away. On the road they have not won in four games, drawing once and losing three times. Across those eight matches they have scored 14 and conceded 19, failing to find the net in two games. Six of the eight contests featured three or more goals and both sides scored in six of them.
The two clubs have met twice before this meeting. Barnet have won both encounters, the most recent being a 1-0 victory for the home side on 24 February 2026. Those two games produced an average of 1.5 goals, indicating that they tend to be low-scoring affairs when they face each other. Given Barnet’s recent trend of high-scoring draws and Accrington’s difficulty in finding the net away from home, we expect a game where Barnet create the bulk of the chances while Accrington struggle to score more than once.
Our pick is Accrington to score one goal or fewer. We think Barnet will find the net at least once – the chance of them scoring at all is 89 % and the chance of two or more is 63 %. Accrington’s chance of scoring at all is only 60 % and the chance of two or more drops to 23 %. Putting those together gives us a 75 % chance that Accrington will finish with one goal or less. The price on offer is 1.28, which is shorter than our own view of the game, so we feel the price is attractive. For the bet to go wrong Accrington would need to score twice, which would require a rare away goal burst that their recent record does not support.
Recent results
Barnet have won two of the last two meetings.
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