Colchester v Crewe: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 70%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Colchester host Crewe at the start of the weekend in League Two. Colchester sit 13th with eight points from six games and a -2 goal difference. Crewe are a little higher in 8th place, also on ten points from six games but with a +2 goal difference. The table is tight around them – Chesterfield sit just above Colchester and Oldham just below, while Fleetwood sits level with Crewe and Swindon is level below. Both clubs are looking to move up the middle of the table, and a win would give a small but useful boost.

Colchester have been on a rough patch. In their last eight matches they have won three, drawn one and lost four. The most recent three results were a 3-1 loss away to Swindon, a 2-0 loss away to Bristol Rovers and another 2-0 loss away to the same side. Before that they beat Rochdale 1-0 at home, beat Oldham 2-1 at home and drew 2-2 away at Accrington. In those eight games they have scored ten and let in twelve. They have kept only one clean sheet and have failed to find the net in three games. Their three home games in the run produced two wins and one loss.

Crewe come in on a string of three draws. Their last eight fixtures contain two wins, four draws and two defeats. The most recent results are a 1-1 draw at home with York, a 2-2 draw at home against Walsall and a goalless draw away to Port Vale. Earlier they beat Northampton 1-0 at home, beat Crawley Town 1-0 away and drew 0-0 with Cambridge at home. Over those eight games Crewe have scored six and conceded eight. They have kept four clean sheets and have been shut out three times. Their three away games in the run have given them a win, a draw and a loss.

When the two clubs meet the games have been very tight. In the last five meetings there have been four draws and only one Crewe win, with Colchester never winning. Those five matches have produced an average of one goal each. The most recent encounter was a 1-0 victory for Crewe on 31 January. The history suggests a low-scoring, cautious affair, and the recent form of both sides points to few chances and tight defenses.

We back the under 3.5 goals. The expected total is about 2.2 goals – roughly 1.2 for Colchester and 1.0 for Crewe. The chance of the game staying under three and a half is around 70 per cent, and the price of 1.41 matches our view. For the pick to fail we would need both teams to find the net more than once, turning the game into a three-goal or higher thriller. As long as the match stays cagey, the under should hold.