What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Crewe and 1.1 from Newport County, so Crewe come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Newport County to score 1 or fewer. This is about Newport County's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Newport County have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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