How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Under 3.5 goals 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Exeter and 0.9 from Accrington, so Exeter come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Exeter come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.4 goals in total (xG 1.4-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 76%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Exeter have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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