How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Under 3.5 goals 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Fleetwood Town and 0.9 from Gillingham, so Fleetwood Town come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.5 goals in total (xG 1.6-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 75%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Fleetwood Town have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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