How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Chesterfield or Draw 76%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Newport County and 1.5 from Chesterfield, so Chesterfield come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Chesterfield or Draw. This covers Chesterfield or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Chesterfield have won three of the last four meetings.
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