How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Crawley Town to score 1 or fewer 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Oldham and 1.1 from Crawley Town, so Oldham come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Crawley Town to score 1 or fewer. This is about Crawley Town's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Oldham have won one of the last four meetings, with three drawn.
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