How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Shrewsbury and 1.1 from Gillingham, so Shrewsbury come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.5 goals (xG 1.4-1.1), and two is enough to land it, landing about 73% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
The last four meetings are split 1-1, with two drawn.
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