How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Both teams to score 57%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Atlante and 1.5 from Toluca, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.5-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 57%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.70, which works out at about 59 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Toluca have won three of the last four meetings.
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