How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Club America to score 2 or fewer 78%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Necaxa host Club America at home on 28 September in a Liga MX clash that could decide whether the visitors stay in the top three or slip down a place. Necaxa sit 16th of 18 with eight points from nine games and a –6 goal difference, just one spot above the bottom-placed Santos Laguna and one below Tigres. Club America sit third with 17 points from eight games and a +9 goal difference, one point behind Chivas and level with Querétaro below them. Both teams are looking for points, but America are the clear favorite on paper.
Necaxa have not won any of their last eight matches, recording two draws and six defeats. Their most recent results are a 3-1 loss away to Atlético de San Luis, another 3-1 loss away to the same side, a 1-0 home loss to Puebla, a 1-1 draw away at Tigres, a 3-1 home loss to Cruz Azul and a 1-1 draw away at UNAM Pumas. That string includes three straight defeats and three straight home losses. In those eight games they have scored seven goals and let in 17, failing to find the net once. Most of the games have been high-scoring, with five featuring three or more goals and both sides scoring in seven of the eight matches.
America have been much stronger, winning five of their last eight, drawing two and losing only once. Their recent form reads: a 2-2 home draw with Chivas, a 4-3 away loss to Cruz Azul, a 2-0 home win over Puebla, a 2-1 away win at Juárez, a 3-0 home victory over Atlético de San Luis and a 3-0 home win over Santos Laguna. On the road in their last four outings they have two wins, one draw and one loss. In this run they have scored 17 goals while conceding just eight and have kept four clean sheets. Their last match was eight days ago, a 2-2 draw with Chivas at home.
The two clubs have met five times before, sharing one win each and three draws, with an average of 2.2 goals per game. The most recent encounter was a 2-0 win for America on 31 January. Given the recent scores and the fact that both sides tend to be involved in games with three or more goals, we expect a modestly open match. Necaxa’s poor defensive record and America’s ability to score multiple goals suggest that the visitors will find the net, but America’s recent clean sheets hint they may keep the tally low.
Our pick is that Club America will score two or fewer goals. The price of 1.28 matches our view of the game. We think America will finish with about 1.6 goals, giving us a 78 % chance of the bet succeeding. For this to fail, America would need to score three or more, which would require a breakdown in their recent defensive solidity or a sudden surge in Necaxa’s attack that does not appear likely from the facts we have.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
