How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Santos Laguna to score 1 or fewer 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Santos Laguna host Pachuca at home on 27 September in a Liga MX clash that could move the table a little. Laguna sit 17th of 18 with just eight points from ten games and a –6 goal difference, barely ahead of FC Juárez and a point clear of Necaxa. Pachuca sit mid-table in 10th, on 13 points and a +5 goal difference, with Tijuana one spot above and Monterrey level on points just below. Both teams are looking for points, but the stakes differ: Laguna need any win to climb out of the relegation zone, while Pachuca are trying to push back into the top half.
Laguna have turned a corner in their last eight matches, winning three, drawing one and losing four. Their most recent three results are all wins: a 3-2 away victory over Toluca, a 2-1 home win over Juárez and another 2-1 home win over FC Juárez. Before that they fell 1-0 to Cruz Azul away, drew 0-0 with Tigres at home and lost 3-2 at Puebla. In those eight games they have scored nine and let in twelve, kept only one clean sheet and failed to find the net in four matches. Four of the games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them. Their last home outing was six days ago.
Pachuca’s form over their last eight fixtures shows two wins, three draws and three defeats. The most recent results are a 2-2 draw with Club Tijuana at home, a 3-0 away win over Atlante and a 2-0 away win over Juárez. Prior to that they drew 1-1 with Guadalajara at home, drew 1-1 away at Atl. San Luis and lost 3-2 to Puebla at home. They have not lost in their last five games overall and have been solid on the road with two wins, one draw and one loss in their last four away matches. In this run they have scored twelve and conceded ten, kept two clean sheets and were held scoreless only once. Five of the eight games featured three or more goals and both sides hit the net in five matches. Their last game was also six days ago.
When the two clubs meet, the recent history leans toward Pachuca. In the last five meetings, Pachuca have won three, Laguna have won one and one game ended in a draw. The fixtures have averaged 2.8 goals, and the most recent encounter on 12 April saw Pachuca beat Laguna 4-2. That game suggests both sides can find the net, but Pachuca have shown the edge in recent head-to-heads.
Our pick is Santos Laguna to score one goal or fewer. We expect Laguna to finish around one goal on the day, and the chance of that happening sits at about 75 out of 100. The price of 1.60 is longer than our reading, which makes it attractive. For the bet to fail, Laguna would need to score twice or more, something that has only happened in 27 out of 100 of their recent games. If they manage only a single goal or stay shut, the pick should pay.
Recent results
Pachuca have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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