How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Atl. San Luis to score 1 or fewer 78%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
UNAM Pumas host Atl. San Luis at home on 27 September in a Liga MX clash that could move both clubs a step up the table. Pumas sit 12th of 18 with 12 points from nine games and a goal difference of minus one, just one point behind Monterrey and one ahead of Atlante. San Luis are 14th, on nine points and a minus-five goal difference, two points behind Atlante and one ahead of Tigres. A win for either side would tighten the race around the middle of the table, while a draw would keep the current order largely unchanged. The numbers suggest an open game with chances at both ends, and the two clubs are almost evenly matched in the standings.
Pumas have not been very decisive in their last eight outings, managing two wins, four draws and two defeats. Their most recent games were a 1-1 draw with Atlas away, another 1-1 draw with Atlas away, a 3-0 loss to Guadalajara Chivas away, a 3-1 victory over Club León at home, a 2-0 loss to Club Tijuana away and a 1-1 draw with Necaxa at home. Those results give them a record of two straight draws coming into this match. In the eight-game stretch they have scored 11 goals and let in 10, keeping only one clean sheet and failing to find the net in three matches. Five of those games saw three or more goals, and both sides scored in five of them, indicating that Pumas can both create and concede chances.
San Luis arrive on the back of two consecutive wins, the most recent being a 3-1 triumph over Necaxa at home and a 2-1 victory over Antofagasta, also at home. Their last eight results are three wins, two draws and three losses, including a 3-1 win at Monterrey, a 1-1 draw with Pachuca at home, a 3-0 defeat to Guadalajara Chivas at home and a 2-0 loss to Club León away. On the road they have one win and two defeats in their last three trips. Over those eight games they have scored nine and conceded twelve, keeping a single clean sheet while failing to score in four matches. Four of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them, showing that San Luis can be involved in high-scoring affairs but also struggle to find the net.
The two clubs have met five times before, with Pumas winning three and San Luis two, and the meetings have averaged three goals each. The most recent encounter on 18 April saw San Luis lose 0-2 at home to Pumas. Given the recent form – Pumas drawing their last two games and San Luis winning their last two – the pattern suggests another game with goals on both sides, but the slight edge in recent confidence belongs to the visitors.
Our pick is that Atl. San Luis will score one goal or fewer. The chance of this happening is about 78 percent, and the price of 1.45 is longer than our own reading of the match, making it an attractive offer. For the bet to fail, San Luis would need to find the net twice, which would require a more potent attack than their recent record of scoring only once in their last two wins. If they manage to keep a clean sheet or score just once, the pick should pay off.
Recent results
UNAM Pumas have won three of the last five meetings.
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