What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Puebla and 1.8 from Toluca, so Toluca come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Puebla come into this on three straight wins. Toluca come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Toluca (Draw No Bet). Toluca are favoured here (xG 1.0-1.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Toluca defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Puebla win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 77% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
