Puebla v UNAM Pumas: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made UNAM Pumas or Draw 75%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Puebla host UNAM Pumas at home on 31 October in a Liga MX clash that could shift the lower half of the table. Puebla sit 14th of 18 with 16 points from 14 games and a –5 goal difference. They are just one place above Tigres and one below Pachuca, both of whom are only a point away. The Pumas are 12th, a point ahead of Puebla with 17 points and a –3 goal difference, sitting between Santos Laguna and Pachuca. Both teams are fighting to climb out of the relegation zone, so a point will be valuable for either side.

Puebla have not been able to turn things around in their last eight matches. They have recorded one win, three draws and four defeats. The most recent results are a 4-3 loss away to Atlas, a 4-1 defeat at home to Monterrey, a 0-0 draw away at Club Tijuana and a 1-1 stalemate at home with Club Leon. Before that they fell 1-0 to Tigres away and shared a 1-1 draw with Atlante at home. In those eight games they have scored seven goals and let in twelve. They kept two clean sheets but failed to find the net in three matches. At home the recent run is two draws and two losses, with no win in the last four fixtures.

UNAM Pumas come into this game after a mixed eight-match run of one win, four draws and three losses. Their latest outings include a 1-1 home draw with Tigres, a 2-0 away loss to Santos Laguna, a 2-1 away win over Atlante and a 3-3 home draw with Cruz Azul. Earlier they suffered 3-2 defeats at home to both Atlético de San Luis. On the road in the last four games they have one win, two draws and one loss. Across the eight matches they have scored twelve times while conceding fifteen, and they have been shut out only once. Their most recent game was six days ago, a 1-1 draw with Tigres at home.

The two sides have met five times before, with the Pumas winning four and one game ending in a draw. The average scoreline of those meetings is 2.6 goals. The latest encounter on 14 February saw Puebla lose 2-3 at home to the Pumas. Given the recent form and the history, we can expect another open game with both teams likely to find the net. The numbers suggest Puebla will score at least once in about two-thirds of their games, while the Pumas score in almost four-fifths, and both sides often score more than one goal.

We back UNAM Pumas or a draw at 1.28. The price is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, giving us a safety net while still favouring the stronger side. Our chance of this selection being right is about 75 %. For it to go wrong the Pumas would need to lose outright, which would require a defensive collapse and Puebla to score twice, something that has happened in only 30 % of Puebla’s games. If the match stays tight and the Pumas manage at least a point, our pick should pay off.