What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Queretaro and 1.0 from Club Leon, so Queretaro come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Queretaro to win. Queretaro are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.0), and we make them about 49% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.30, which works out at about 43 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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