How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Cruz Azul to score 78%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Monterrey host Cruz Azul at home in a Liga MX clash on 20 September 2026. Monterrey sit seventh of eighteen with 13 points from eight games and a +4 goal difference. Cruz Azul are fourth, on 15 points from nine games and a +1 goal difference. The table is tight: Atlas sit one place above Monterrey with a single point, while Querétaro sit just below them on the same points. Cruz Azul sit one point behind América and one point ahead of Puebla. Both teams are looking to move up the table, and a win for either side would tighten the race at the top.
Monterrey have not been consistent in their last eight outings. They drew 0-0 with Tigres UANL at home, then lost 2-0 away to Toluca, 3-1 at home to Atl. San Luis and 2-0 away to Club Leon. The run was broken with a 6-1 home win over Juárez and a 2-0 away victory at Atlas. In those eight games they have scored 13 and let in 12. They kept two clean sheets but failed to find the net in three matches. Their last four games have all been without a win, although at home they have two wins, one draw and one loss in the same period.
Cruz Azul’s recent form shows a similar roller-coaster. Their last eight results include a 2-0 loss away to Inter Miami, a 4-3 home win over Club América, a 1-0 home win over Santos Laguna and a 3-1 away win at Necaxa. They then lost 2-0 at home to Atlas and 2-1 away to Club Tijuana. In total they have scored 13 and conceded 14. They kept one clean sheet and have been shut out twice. Their last three road games gave them one win and two defeats, and they are coming into this match after playing just three days ago.
The two clubs have met five times recently. Monterrey have won once, Cruz Azul three times and one game ended in a draw. Those meetings have produced an average of 2.6 goals per match. The most recent encounter was a 0-2 victory for Cruz Azul on 1 March 2026. Given the similar scoring rates this season – both sides average about 1.6 goals per game – we can expect an open contest with chances at both ends. Both teams have been involved in games with three or more goals in half of their recent matches, and both have often seen both sides score.
Our pick is Cruz Azul to score. The chance they find the net is about 78 out of 100, and the price of 1.30 matches our view of the game. The price looks good for a simple goal bet. For the pick to fail, Cruz Azul would have to be shut out, which has happened twice in their last eight games. If they manage to break the deadlock, even a single goal will be enough for the bet to succeed.
Recent results
Cruz Azul have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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