What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Nice and 1.0 from Troyes, so Nice come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Nice come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Nice to win. Nice are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-1.0), and we make them about 60% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Nice have won three of the last four meetings.
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