How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Monaco to score 2 or fewer 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Strasbourg and 1.7 from Monaco, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Strasbourg come into this on two straight wins. Monaco come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Monaco to score 2 or fewer. This is about Monaco's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.7 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 78%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Monaco have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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