How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Troyes to score 1 or fewer 83%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.0 goals from Toulouse and 0.9 from Troyes, so Toulouse come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Troyes come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Troyes to score 1 or fewer. This is about Troyes's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 83%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 83 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Toulouse have won two of the last two meetings.
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