How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Marseille (Draw No Bet) 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Troyes and 2.2 from Marseille, so Marseille come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Troyes come into this on three straight defeats. Marseille come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Marseille (Draw No Bet). Marseille are favoured here (xG 1.1-2.2), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Marseille defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Marseille have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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