How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 78%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Clermont and 1.1 from Red Star, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Clermont come into this on five straight draws. Red Star come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.2 goals in total (xG 1.0-1.1), keeping it under more often than not (about 80%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Red Star have won one of the last four meetings, with three drawn.
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