How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Dijon (Draw No Bet) 70%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Dijon and 1.2 from Pau FC, so Dijon come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Dijon (Draw No Bet). Dijon are favoured here (xG 1.9-1.2), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Dijon defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Pau FC win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 70%: a lean, not a lock.
