How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Metz to win 50%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Grenoble and 1.6 from Metz, so Metz come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Metz to win. Metz shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.6), and we make them about 51% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.05, which works out at about 49 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Metz have won three of the last four meetings.
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