What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Dijon and 1.6 from St Etienne, so St Etienne come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: St Etienne to win. St Etienne shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.6), and we make them about 51% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.92, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Dijon a draw or better. We make it about 51% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
