How it turned out
The game finished with 3 goals. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
Metz come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Metz to win. Metz are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.9-1.0), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.88, which works out at about 53 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Guingamp to spoil this. At around 61% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
