How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Metz and 1.3 from Rodez, so Metz come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Metz come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.8 goals (xG 1.5-1.3) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 71%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Metz have won two of the last four meetings, with two drawn.
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