What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Reims and 1.0 from Guingamp, so Reims come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.8 goals (xG 1.8-1.0) and it takes four to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 72%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. At around 72% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
