How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 0.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Red Star and 0.9 from Sochaux, so Red Star come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Red Star to win. Red Star are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.9), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 56 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.90, which works out at about 53 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Sochaux a draw or better. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 56%.
