Red Star v Sochaux: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Red Star to win 54%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.8 goals from Red Star and 0.9 from Sochaux, so Red Star come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Sochaux come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Red Star to win. Red Star are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.9), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.90, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.