Sochaux v Boulogne: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 1.5 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Boulogne to score 1 or fewer 84%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 0.8 goals from Sochaux and 0.7 from Boulogne, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.5 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Our pick: Boulogne to score 1 or fewer. This is about Boulogne's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.7 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 84%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 84 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.