How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 73%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
I think St Etienne are the stronger side in this game. They are expected to score more goals than Clermont. The gap between them is clear. This does not look like an open game to me.
The last two meetings between these teams had a lot of goals, with an average of 4 goals per game. But I do not think this game will be like that. St Etienne won both of those games. Clermont are not in good shape, having lost their last three games.
Our pick is under 3.5 goals. I think this is a good choice because the price looks good. We think there is a 75 out of 100 chance that this will happen. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game. Clear chances should be at a premium.
For this pick to go wrong, something unexpected would have to happen. The teams would have to create a lot of clear chances and score more goals than we expect. But based on the numbers, I think our pick is a good one. We are fairly confident that there will not be many goals in this game.
Recent meetings
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