What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Banga Gargzdai and 1.3 from FK Kauno Žalgiris, so FK Kauno Žalgiris come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: FK Kauno Žalgiris (Draw No Bet). FK Kauno Žalgiris are favoured here (xG 0.8-1.3), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a FK Kauno Žalgiris defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.62, which works out at about 62 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright Banga Gargzdai win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 70%: a lean, not a lock.
