What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Dziugas and 1.7 from Hegelmann, so Hegelmann come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Hegelmann to win. Hegelmann shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.7), and we make them about 50% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.40, which works out at about 29 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Dziugas a draw or better. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 50%.
