How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Žalgiris Vilnius (Draw No Bet) 65%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from FK Panevėžys and 1.6 from Žalgiris Vilnius, so Žalgiris Vilnius come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Žalgiris Vilnius (Draw No Bet). Žalgiris Vilnius are favoured here (xG 1.1-1.6), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Žalgiris Vilnius defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.20, which works out at about 83 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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