How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Hegelmann to win 40%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from FA Šiauliai and 1.7 from Hegelmann, so Hegelmann come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Hegelmann to win. Hegelmann shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.7), and we make them about 42% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.50, which works out at about 40 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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