How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 1. We made FK Kauno Žalgiris to win 51%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from FK Panevėžys and 1.6 from FK Kauno Žalgiris, so FK Kauno Žalgiris come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: FK Kauno Žalgiris to win. FK Kauno Žalgiris shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.6), and we make them about 53% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.58, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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